Climate–health risk in Guatemala: extreme thermal trends and their correlation with dengue, ARIs and FWDs
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5377/wani.v1i84.22333Keywords:
: Climate change adaptation, meteorological conditions, epidemiology, public health, tropical regionsAbstract
Heat waves represent an emerging public health risk in Guatemala, where climatic and territorial heterogeneity intensifies health impacts. The study assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of heat waves and their association with dengue, acute respiratory infections (ARIs), and food- and water-borne diseases (FWDs). Daily maximum temperature series from 33 meteorological stations (1970–2024) and departmental epidemiological records (2014–2024) were analyzed. Heat waves were defined as periods of ≥3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above the local monthly 95th percentile. Results show a significant national increase, averaging 0.9 events per decade (p < 0.01), with higher recurrence in Zacapa, Petén, and Escuintla. The maximum temperature was positively associated with dengue (ρ = 0.74), ARIs (ρ = 0.61), and FWDs (ρ = 0.66), and models identified a critical thermal threshold of 32–34 °C. A climate–health vulnerability index integrated climatic, epidemiological, and territorial variables, identifying Guatemala Department as the most vulnerable (IVCS = 0.83). These findings support incorporating extreme-heat metrics into epidemiological surveillance, early warning systems, and territorial prioritization of climate adaptation strategies.
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