Financial and health risks in the population aging process in Honduras: a comprehensive analysis of the projected cohort 2035-2045

Abstract

This research analyzes the financial risks and health challenges that the cohort entering older adulthood between 2035 and 2045 in Honduras will face, within a context of structural limitations in the health system and weak social protection. The study is being conducted amidst an accelerated demographic transition: according to ECLAC, youth dependency is decreasing while that of older adults is growing rapidly, and it is projected that by mid-century this group will be predominant, increasing the pressure on public systems. A mixed-methods approach with descriptive and correlational scopes was used. A structured survey was administered to 486 people, of whom 265 comprised the valid sample. The reliability of the instrument was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, yielding 0.691. In addition, 10 semi-structured interviews were conducted with specialists in public health, social security, and finance, and analyzed using thematic analysis. The results show that the majority of participants have insufficient retirement savings, high dependency on earned income, and greater vulnerability to chronic diseases. More than 60% resorted to savings or debt to cope with health emergencies. The study concludes that comprehensive public policies are needed to strengthen financial literacy, the health system, and social security in order to reduce future vulnerability among the population.