El Salvador in a critical juncture

Abstract

At the end of the second decade of the 21st century, El Salvador is at a critical juncture in its process of social transformation. Amid changes in the economy, demographics, and the cultural-religious sphere, it appears that the authoritarian tendencies currently prevalent in the regime will ultimately prevail in Salvadoran politics. The current president of the Republic has encountered difficulties in implementing his political agenda due to institutional constraints stemming from the lack of a party of his own or a legislative caucus supporting him, a context of divided government, and a system that renders the presidency institutionally weak. Under these conditions, the president and his administration have sought to overcome these difficulties through authoritarian means. At the same time, a shift in the Salvadoran party system is underway. The outcome of this shift may shed light on the direction of change in the political regime. A change brought about by collapse will favor the transition toward an authoritarian regime. A gradual change may favor either the maintenance of the status quo or the re-accumulation of forces to democratize the regime. But the latter path requires the emergence of forces for democratization in spheres beyond politics and the implementation of welfare policies.