Validity of a procedure for the management of economic risk in constructive investments, Cuba

Abstract

The elaboration of a procedure for economic risk management in the total cost of constructive investments was the result of a theoretical, methodological and practical development. This procedure is based on a systematic process that analyzes, estimates and evaluates risks and requires, for its implementation, proven levels of validity, reliability and applicability. The study carried out by this group of authors used theoretical methods of scientific research and mathematical modeling, which made it possible to establish reliable deductions and a logical sequence in each of the phases of the procedure. In addition, the Ladov’s Logical Table technique was included, which made it possible to evaluate the level of satisfaction with the procedure from the point of view of experts. The objective of the study was to validate the reliability and applicability of an economic risk management procedure in constructive investments by means of modeling techniques and expert criteria. The results show the validity of the mixed approach used (quantitative complemented with qualitative), which provides benefits such as consistency in the process and satisfaction on the part of experts with respect to the structure and contributions of the proposed model. As a result, we were able to validate an effective instrument that, from its estimation phase, allows to economically foresee the amount necessary within a constructive investment to assume the identified risks.